Pictured above: Jen Corkran.
New Zealand’s avocado sector is rapidly diversifying into Asian markets as demand from its traditional largest buyer, Australia, softens, according to Rabobank’s newly released Global Avocado Update 2026.
New Zealand avocado exports reached 3.445 million trays in the 2025/26 season, which ran from September through to March, down around 9 percent year-on-year. Rabobank attributes the decline to wind damage and constrained market windows during the season.
Australia remained New Zealand’s largest export market, taking 750,000 trays, or 22 percent of total volume, but that share continues to shrink. RaboResearch senior analyst and report co-author Jen Corkran says the sector is now far less dependent on trans-Tasman trade than it was five years ago, when Australia accounted for more than two-thirds of total Kiwi avocado exports.
“To offset weaker Australian demand, the sector continues to diversify, with strong growth across Asia,” Corkran says. Exports to South Korea surged 70 percent year-on-year to 625,000 trays in the 2025/26 season, while shipments to China, Hong Kong and India nearly doubled, and exports to Taiwan rose 50 percent.
Corkran says there is growing optimism among sector participants that the recently signed New Zealand-India trade agreement will support further growth into the sub-continent over time, with tariffs on avocados and other fruit set to be phased out over the next decade.
“Avocado exports into India are already growing strongly, and further growth is now expected given the new trade deal,” she says.
The report points to a strong global growth trajectory, with worldwide avocado exports climbing from 0.73 million metric tons in 2010/11 to more than 3.3 million tons in 2025/26. Mexico and Peru remain the dominant global suppliers, alongside rising volumes from Kenya, Spain, Colombia and South Africa.
Global export volumes are expected to grow further in 2026/27, though Rabobank flags the developing El Niño weather pattern as a risk factor for the season ahead.
“Rather than a broad supply squeeze, El Niño will likely increase variability of yields and fruit sizes across regions, thereby amplifying seasonal imbalances and market volatility,” Corkran says.
On the demand side, the report describes a “dual-speed dynamic,” with established markets nearing saturation while newer consumption regions continue to grow strongly.
Mexico and Chile remain outliers in per capita consumption, at approximately 14kg and 9kg per year respectively, levels Corkran says leave little room for further growth. By contrast, larger population markets are showing more upside: the EU reached 2.24kg per capita in 2025, a figure Corkran says points to significant growth potential.
“Countries such as Italy, Germany and Turkey are also exhibiting rapid relative growth, pointing to broad-based adoption rather than niche consumption,” she says.
For New Zealand exporters, the findings reinforce a strategic shift already underway, away from reliance on a single trans-Tasman market and toward a broader, Asia-weighted export base, supported by new trade access into markets like India.
