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Global pharmaceutical sales may rise between 5 and 7% next year to USD$880 billion (NZD$1.16 trillion) on soaring demand in developing nations led by China as it becomes the world’s third-largest drug market, according to a Bloomberg report carried inย China Daily.

Citing IMS Health Inc, the report said the 2011 projection compares with this year’s 4 to 5% growth in drug sales to $840 billion.

IMS Health, a research company based in Norwalk, Connecticut, said in a report released late last week that emerging markets including China and India are expected to expand by as much as 17% to $180 billion while growth in the United States market slows.

The world’s largest market, the US, is growing at a historically low rate of 3 to 4% as patents expire on top-selling medicines and cheaper generic versions become available to consumers, Murray Aitken, senior vice-president of IMS, was quoted saying.

Drugs with sales of more than $30 billion are expected to lose patent protection next year, according to IMS.

Aitken was quoted saying developed marketsโ€™ growth would be constrained with almost half of the global growth next yearย coming from China and the other emerging markets.

The five biggest European markets – Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom – will grow 1 to 3% as governments cut drug prices as part of efforts to restore fiscal balance, according to the IMS report. In the US, health plans will require pre-authorization for certain medications along with other measures intended to address rising health-care expenditures.

Generic copies will hit the market next year for Pfizer Inc’s cholesterol pill Lipitor, the world’s top-selling drug with sales of $11.4 billion in 2009. Generic versions of the second-best seller, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co’s blood thinner Plavix, will become available in the US in 2012. Together with Eli Lilly & Co’s antipsychotic Zyprexa and Johnson & Johnson’s antibiotic Levaquin – also expected to lose market exclusivity – the drugs account for 93 million prescriptions a year, IMS said.

Developing countries are expected to pick up the slack for the lost revenue. IMS said it expects drug spending in China to increase at least 25% next year as the middle class expands and the government invests in health care. Japan is the second-biggest pharmaceutical market after the US. — Source: China Daily

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